Overview
- J.P. Morgan’s EMBI for Argentina closed at 1,231 on September 15 after a one-day jump of 91 points, marking the highest level since early October 2024.
- The index has whipsawed from about 500 points earlier this year to above 1,000 in recent days, underscoring renewed volatility following defeats in Buenos Aires and Corrientes.
- Market commentary links the rise to political setbacks and expectations that the central bank may need to sell reserves to steady the peso ahead of October.
- The Treasury faces roughly US$8.1 billion in external maturities through January, and reports say it lacks the cash to cover them, heightening rollover risk.
- At current spreads, analysts estimate external borrowing would cost roughly 16% to 20% annually, reinforcing calls to rebuild credibility through steps like passing the 2026 budget and holding a near‑zero fiscal deficit target.