Overview
- The post‑recession rebound that began in 2024 eased sharply by early 2026, with consultants reporting only modest quarter‑to‑quarter gains and analysts warning growth may finish flat or slightly positive for the year.
- Consumer lending has turned negative after six months of decline and repayment problems are rising, with bank delinquency reported near 7.7% and much higher rates in digital wallets.
- Sales are uneven across sectors and regions: mass‑consumption channels such as supermarkets, shopping centers and electronics are weakening while niches like motorcycles remain stronger.
- Policy changes that removed import taxes and eased rules, together with a stronger peso, have routed more household spending to foreign goods and cross‑border e‑commerce, lifting imports sharply but leaving everyday local sales depressed.
- If employment, real wages and credit conditions do not improve, experts say consumption will likely grow only weakly and remain vulnerable to political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle, with firms needing to rethink pricing, product value and online strategies.