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Argentina’s Activity Index Rises 0.5% in September, Easing Recession Fears

A narrow rebound led by finance and energy‑linked sectors faces confirmation when the third‑quarter GDP report arrives December 16.

Overview

  • INDEC’s EMAE rose 0.5% month on month and 5.0% year on year in September, logging a third consecutive monthly increase.
  • Revisions lifted July to a 0.1% gain and August to 0.7%, softening prior declines and improving the short‑term trajectory.
  • The activity index reached 153.6, its second‑highest level since June 2022.
  • Growth was concentrated in fishing (+58.2%) and financial intermediation (+39.7%), while manufacturing (-1.0%) and public administration (-0.7%) contracted.
  • Analysts have trimmed 2025 growth expectations toward about 4% as markets await the December 16 GDP release to determine the quarter’s outcome.