Overview

• Argentina’s meteorological service assigns a 60% probability to a climatically neutral year, shaping sowing strategies toward earlier maize planting.
• Soil profiles across much of the core and center‑west are unusually recharged after a wet winter, though some areas still face excess-water recovery.
• Modeling for sites such as Villa María, Río Cuarto and Oncativo indicates early maize can yield about 1,000 kg/ha more with fully charged soils versus 25% recharge.
• Economic projections show stronger net margins for early maize than soybean in most regions, including 264.4 USD/ha vs 89.3 USD/ha in the Zona Núcleo and 165.6 vs 15.8 in north Córdoba.
• Market signals favor early maize with an estimated 6 USD/ton price spread (178 vs 164) and a potential 3–8% premium in early harvest windows, while late maize remains the system’s dominant, flexible strategy.