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Argentina’s 2025 Tax Revenue Up 39.4%, Independent Analysis Flags Small Real Decline

December registered a fifth straight real decline, reflecting weaker trade‑related receipts after tax cuts.

Overview

  • ARCA reported total 2025 collections of $183.109.217 million, a 39.4% nominal rise that outpaced the 31% inflation estimate.
  • IARAF’s Nadin Argañaraz estimated an overall 1% real drop for 2025 once inflation and policy effects are considered.
  • December revenue reached $16.527.268 million, up 27% nominally but down 3% in real terms, marking the fifth consecutive monthly real contraction.
  • Gains were concentrated in VAT, Income Tax and Social Security contributions, while export duties and other trade‑linked taxes fell sharply following cuts including the removal of PAIS and lower retentions.
  • ARCA noted that extraordinary 2024 inflows depressed the year‑on‑year comparison, adding that without those one‑offs 2025’s nominal increase would have approached 50%, while IARAF found a 4.5% real rise if trade‑related taxes are excluded.