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Argentina Weighs Easing Bank Squeeze as FX Curbs Stay and IMF Talks Loom

Officials signal easing will hinge on firmer peso demand.

Overview

  • Public and private banks pressed the BCRA to cut record reserve requirements near 53.5% and roll back daily encaje calculations that they say are choking liquidity and credit.
  • The government said pre‑election foreign‑exchange restrictions will remain, including the BCRA’s ‘crossed’ rule that blocks access to MEP or CCL for 90 days after buying official dollars and limits on wallets selling the official rate.
  • Economic officials outlined a cautious roadmap to relax the monetary squeeze as early as late November or December and to buy dollars only if money demand strengthens and FX supply from private issuers continues.
  • Sources said the administration will seek an IMF waiver for missed reserve targets and propose lowering the goal in the next review, while rejecting a fixed 2026 schedule for BCRA reserve purchases.
  • President Javier Milei argued Argentina can reaccess capital markets as risk spreads fall, even as analysts flag a 400–500 bps threshold for safer borrowing and Carlos Melconian warns the FX band could be breached with an equilibrium near 1,500–2,000 pesos.