Overview

• The Treasury will auction new debt this week to cover ARS 13.7 trillion in peso maturities, with roughly ARS 9.1 trillion held by the private sector after a prior 60–61% rollover.
• Authorities are leaning on very high peso yields, emergency auctions and higher reserve requirements near 50% to absorb pesos and limit pressure on the dollar.
• Market plumbing swung wildly as regulatory tweaks drove the caución rate from near 0% to above 140% intraday, prompting the BCRA to reintroduce repos, adjust encajes and intervene in futures.
• The official dollar hovered around ARS 1,335 and analysts expect relative stability through the elections, with a post‑vote shift toward a higher FX level and lower rates depending on results.
• Activity data weakened under the monetary squeeze, with June GDP proxy down 0.7% and industry and consumption indicators falling, while political setbacks and corruption allegations added to volatility.