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Argentina Stocks Rally on U.S. Deal as Mexico’s Peso Slips on Fewer Fed‑Cut Odds

Deal confirmation in Washington alongside softer odds of a December Fed cut reshaped Latin American market pricing.

Overview

  • Argentina’s market jumped after the U.S.–Argentina commercial and investment agreement was confirmed, with the S&P Merval up roughly 3.8–4.4%, ADRs advancing up to about 5%, and sovereign bonds gaining up to 1.4% as country risk hovered near 612–616 points.
  • The official Banco Nación dollar fell $5 to $1,425, down about $20 for the week, while the blue closed at $1,410/$1,430; the wholesale rate was $1,403 and financial dollars traded near MEP $1,452–1,454 and CCL ~$1,485 with narrow spreads.
  • Argentina’s gross international reserves ended at USD 40.636 billion with a weekly decline of USD 44 million, as sizable corporate dollar bond placements exceeding USD 3.15 billion in 14 days helped supply foreign currency.
  • The Mexican peso weakened by about 0.48% to around 18.40 per dollar intraday and closed near 18.31, tracking a stronger dollar as markets reduced the likelihood of a December Federal Reserve rate cut following cautious comments from Neel Kashkari.
  • Mexico’s timely private consumption indicator signaled very weak momentum, with September revised to 0.06% and October estimated at 0.07% month over month, implying roughly 0.35% growth through October if confirmed, while the S&P/BMV IPC slipped 0.36%.