Overview

• The Treasury and central bank intensified efforts to hold the band, selling about $1 billion in dollars last week and over $2 billion in FX‑insured notes to keep the retail rate below 1,500 pesos.
• The BCRA is reinforcing firepower with roughly $6 billion in dollar‑futures positions against a $9 billion cap and now holds about $7 billion in dollar‑linked bonds after an off‑schedule swap.
• A Banco Provincia figure cited by the Financial Times reports individuals bought around $9.5 billion from the central bank between April and August via “rulo” arbitrage, sapping accessible reserves.
• Private foreign‑currency deposits rose by approximately $1.6 billion in September to $33.8 billion, signaling intensified pre‑election dollarization that could persist into October.
• Analysts flag a likely post‑election shift to a more flexible regime or a higher equilibrium near 1,500–1,650 pesos, while opinion pieces from the Wall Street Journal and ex‑IMF official Alejandro Werner advocate dollarization or an immediate float backed by an IMF program.