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2h ago

Argentina Sets Record Wheat Harvest as Weak Prices Cap Dollar Inflows

Lower world prices near $200 a tonne keep projected wheat export receipts at about $3.5 billion despite the bumper crop.

A farmer operates a combine during the start of the wheat harvesting campaign in a field near the town of Starobilsk (Starobelsk) in the Luhansk Region, a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine, July 9, 2025. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
En 2025 Brasil ha perdido el podio como principal destino del trigo argentino en manos de Indonesia (que lleva 0,46 Mt) y Vietnam (0,41 Mt), quedando en tercer lugar Brasil (con compras por 0,40 Mt)

Overview

  • Official and analyst estimates put 2025/26 output around 26.8–27.0 million tonnes, a near 50% jump driven mainly by yield gains with minimal expansion of sown area.
  • About 17.5 million tonnes, roughly 65% of the harvest, are expected to go to export markets.
  • With average FOB prices near $200 per tonne, export earnings are forecast around $3.5 billion, roughly 26% below the 2021/22 real peak even as volumes exceed that season.
  • The government reduced wheat export duties to 7.5%, and analysts are urging broader structural reforms to convert high yields into stronger foreign‑exchange gains.
  • Trade is active with December shipments estimated at nearly 2.5 million tonnes worth about $520 million, exporters reporting 9.1 million tonnes purchased and local cash prices edging higher on near‑term demand.