Overview
- Rosario and Buenos Aires grain exchanges project total 2025/26 output at 154.8 million tonnes, with maize rebounding to about 61 million tonnes and export volumes near 110 million tonnes worth roughly US$36.8 billion, led by the soybean complex at ~US$19.5 billion.
- ENSO readings have moved toward neutral and forecasts for January 8–14 call for abundant rain across much of the farm belt to support maize grain fill, though heat and dryness persist in pockets such as northeast Buenos Aires and parts of La Pampa–west Buenos Aires.
- Barley harvest has concluded at 5.4 million tonnes, the best in a decade, wheat harvest is 98.5% complete with variable yields, and sunflower cutting has reached 11.1% with above-average yields but rising moisture needs.
- Local maize prices are trading above Chicago parity, reflecting firm domestic demand, but analysts caution that values could soften as a larger crop arrives with the main harvest.
- Despite bigger physical exports, the BCR estimates farm dollar supply to the official market in 2026 at about US$33.6 billion—around 8% below 2025—with roughly US$6.6 billion expected for January–March after Decree 685/2025 pulled forward liquidations in September.