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Argentina Sends 2026 Budget to Congress With Lower Surplus Target and Expanded Debt-Swap Latitude

Optimistic growth and disinflation projections underpin a push to win governors’ support via higher discretionary transfers.

Overview

  • The bill forecasts 5% GDP growth in 2026 with year-end inflation at 10.1% and a wholesale dollar at $1,423.
  • The fiscal path targets a 1.5% primary surplus and 0.3% financial surplus, below the IMF program’s 2.2% primary goal for 2026.
  • Article 55 would relax legal constraints on public debt exchanges by removing the current requirement for objective improvement under the Financial Administration law.
  • Projected tax take reaches ARCA $90.3 billones in 2026 (about 11% real growth), with export duties up 22.8% to exceed $10,000 millones and fuel/carbon levies rising 71% nominal.
  • Discretionary Aportes del Tesoro Nacional climb to $569,426 millones and a regime to settle reciprocal debts with provinces is included, as Congress’s Budget Committee readies debate next week and universities and disability groups contest allocations.