Overview
- Private consultancies and the BCRA’s REM expect May inflation of roughly 2.1–2.5%, with the central bank survey specifically at 2.3%.
- Forecasters point to smaller rises in regulated prices, a stable peso and YPF’s price‑buffer policy — which added a 1% pump rise in mid‑May and was extended through June 28 — as key factors that held down fuel’s contribution.
- Core pressure remains: food and non‑alcoholic beverages rose faster than the headline in many estimates (some firms put food at about 2–3.4% for May) and services such as rents, telecoms and prepaid health tariffs stayed rigid.
- Economists warn the disinflation is fragile because of services inertia, consumer inflation expectations above historical norms and policy trade‑offs on rates, reserves and exchange‑rate path; the official INDEC May CPI will be published on June 11 and is likely to shape market and policy moves.
- Even with the recent slowdown, annualized inflation measures remain high (above 30% in many readings), households still feel price stress on key goods, and analysts see only a gradual convergence toward the 2% monthly range over the coming months.