Overview
- Government sources say negotiations aim to modify the reserves goal and clear a disbursement of roughly US$1,000–1,050 million in the near term.
- Analysts estimate an end-2025 gap of about US$17.8 billion versus the IMF path with net reserves slightly negative, requiring a new waiver despite a prior relaxation to a US$2.6 billion shortfall target.
- The central bank introduced inflation-indexed exchange bands from January 1 and tied dollar purchases to money-demand growth under a remonetization plan.
- Official projections envision about US$10 billion in reserve purchases in 2026 under the baseline, with a stretch accumulation objective near US$17 billion.
- To cover near-term debt service, authorities cite tools including a U.S. Treasury swap used in November to pay the IMF, potential bank repos, a US$1 billion Bonar 2029 sale, treasury deposits near US$2 billion, and roughly US$700 million expected from Comahue privatization, as US$2.7 billion in principal and US$1.6 billion in interest fall due on January 9.