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Argentina Risk Premium Rises to About 850 Points After U.S. Election Shock

The government says its reserves and a reported US$20 billion China swap should limit lasting damage while warning political uncertainty ahead of 2027 will keep borrowing costs higher for firms.

Overview

  • The JP Morgan–based Argentine risk premium climbed roughly 19 points to about 850–852 after Donald Trump’s defeat, a move that came as global markets broadly rallied but Argentine sovereign bonds fell.
  • Officials in Casa Rosada framed the increase as a transitory response to international volatility and cited more than US$15 billion in reserves plus a reported US$20 billion swap line with China as buffers.
  • Economy Minister Luis Caputo said the U.S. result does not change Argentina’s policy course and presidential spokesperson Adrián Ravier repeated the government’s view that the shock should stabilize in days.
  • Market moves showed immediate costs: Argentine dollar bonds dropped and some stocks tumbled, with YPF falling as much as about 7%, a sign that firms will face higher financing costs at current risk levels.
  • Argentina’s history of large risk swings and pending electoral alliances makes investors cautious, and the government says clarity on candidates and deals for the 2027 race will be needed to restore lower risk premia.