Overview
- The JP Morgan country risk index climbed to about 642 basis points on Monday, the highest level since December 2025 and the latest in a two‑week run of daily increases.
- Banco Central gross reserves fell below USD 48 billion after several straight declines and an accounting loss from a roughly 3.8% drop in the gold price reduced the reported stock of reserves.
- Private investors have tripled their holdings of dollar‑linked bonds since May so that coverage now exceeds USD 12 billion, a shift that hedges peso exposure but creates contingent liabilities tied to the official rate.
- External shocks pushed stress higher: the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield moved above 5% and oil rose after President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal on the Strait of Hormuz, prompting falls in Argentine sovereign bonds and ADRs.
- The Treasury managed to roll nearly 100% of short‑term maturities in a Monday auction but paid premiums for bids, a sign that technical refinancing was achieved at materially higher cost and could constrain external funding ahead of 2027.