Overview

• Argentina’s public sector reported a primary surplus of AR$1.749 trillion in July and a 1.1 percent of GDP surplus over the first seven months, aiming for a 1.6 percent target under the IMF program.
• Including net intra-sector interest payments of AR$1.9179 trillion tied to Bonares and Globales coupons, July’s financial balance swung to a deficit of AR$168.5 billion.
• The IMF staff report cautioned that counting capitalized interest above the line would imply a fiscal deficit near 1.2 percent of GDP while the Congressional Budget Office estimated a 2.9 percent impact in nominal terms.
• Economists remain divided over above-the-line versus below-the-line accounting and nominal versus real interest adjustments, leaving Argentina’s true financial balance in question.
• The government defends its methodology and primary-surplus narrative as markets and creditors scrutinize debt sustainability risks tied to payment timing and accounting choices.