Overview
- The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR) issued a first estimate of 23.8 million tonnes for the 2026/27 wheat campaign, a volume that would be the second-highest in 17 years with a national average yield of 35.3 qq/ha.
- BCR and agronomists warn that an atypical October of low radiation and cooler-than-normal temperatures coincides with the crop's critical window for flower formation and grain filling, creating meaningful downside risk to the projection.
- Field trials and NDVI measurements from RET sites (Miramar, Balcarce, La Dulce and Barrow) show plant development is running about 2–4 weeks behind 2023–2025, signaling slower growth and less radiation reaching leaves than in recent high-yield years.
- The agronomic frosts of Oct. 18–19 were recorded in parts of the growing area but were reported by BCR surveyors as causing no significant damage at the time; final impact will depend on weather in the coming weeks.
- How this plays out matters for farmers' incomes and harvest volumes because lower grain set from low radiation reduces total yield while cooler temperatures can extend filling and boost individual grain weight, so the next clear, sunny period will determine whether the campaign largely meets the current optimistic projection or falls short.