Overview
- The national statistics agency INDEC will publish the official poverty rate for the first half of 2026 on Thursday 24 September 2026, a figure the Casa Rosada expects could be higher than the last official reading.
- Private nowcasts from universities and consultancies place H1 2026 poverty near 31–32%, which would mean about 1.5–1.7 million people returned to poverty compared with the second half of 2025.
- The government has distributed talking points and manuals to ministers and legislators and held briefings to prepare a unified public response should the official number rise.
- Officials plan to treat indicators separately, emphasizing recent disinflation as evidence of progress and comparing any setback to the 2024 peak of poverty rather than the most recent semester.
- Mixed macro data give the administration both an argument and a vulnerability: very low monthly inflation in August sits alongside a Q2 GDP contraction and a 7.9% unemployment rate, and officials say disinflation and stronger activity in 2027 could restore purchasing power.