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Argentina Prepares Conditional Easing of Pre‑Election Monetary Squeeze, Eyes Opportunistic Reserve Buys

Officials tie any reserve build to an IMF waiver request plus stronger private dollar inflows.

Overview

  • Public and private banks used BCRA supervision meetings to press for lower reserve requirements and a rollback of daily encaje calculations that they say disrupt deposit‑taking and client service.
  • The Central Bank has already made a modest post‑election relaxation and officials signal possible further flexibilization of encajes by month‑end to accommodate seasonal peso needs estimated near 1.5 trillion.
  • The economic team sees early signs of a rebound in peso credit and activity after months of pre‑election dollarization, so any loosening will proceed cautiously.
  • Authorities rule out a fixed schedule for reserve purchases, opting to buy opportunistically as corporate dollar issuance sets a November record and boosts foreign‑currency supply.
  • The government plans to seek an IMF waiver and propose a lower reserves target, while a credibility gap persists between Caputo’s estimate of US$1.5 billion in net reserves and market calculations near negative US$10 billion.