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Argentina Poverty Falls to About 36% in Q3, UCA Says Much of the Drop Is Statistical

UCA argues survey changes inflated the decline, limiting evidence of lasting gains.

Overview

  • UCA places income poverty at 36.3–36.6% and indigence at 6.8% in Q3 2025, marking the lowest poverty level in its series since 2018.
  • Correcting for stronger income capture in the EPH reduces the net decline since 2023 to roughly 2.1 percentage points, according to the observatory.
  • Modeling suggests social transfers are decisive, with indigence rising to about 12.8% and poverty to roughly 41.8% in their absence.
  • Poverty remains highly concentrated in households with children, at 48.8% versus 10.8% in households without minors.
  • UCA challenges INDEC’s use of 2004/05 spending weights for the poverty basket and reports high non-monetary hardship including economic stress and food insecurity.