Overview
- The Economy Ministry reported on Friday that September produced a primary surplus of ARS 1.427.640 million and a financial surplus of roughly ARS 977.173 million, bringing the nine‑month primary balance to about 1.2% of GDP.
- The nine‑month tally includes roughly ARS 1.04 trillion in one‑off proceeds from the sale of hydroelectric assets, a windfall that materially inflates the accumulated surplus when counted.
- Revenue growth outpaced spending in September—officials cited a 36.5% year‑on‑year rise in total revenues versus a 32.2% rise in primary spending—yet real tax receipts remain weak and overall revenue performance is fragile.
- Policy choices driving the result have been deep cuts to discretionary outlays, notably plunging capital spending, even as some indexed or politically sensitive items rose, including a 42.4% nominal jump in university transfers and a 44.1% increase in energy subsidies for September.
- Analysts warn the government must post unusually large surpluses in October and November or seek an IMF adjustment or waiver during the third review, because a typical December deficit and limited room for further discretionary cuts make the agreed annual target hard to sustain.