Overview
- The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario reported a historic energy trade surplus of US$6,987 million for the first half of 2026, with fuel and energy exports rising to US$8,118 million and imports of fuels and lubricants falling 29 percent.
- The export surge is driven mainly by Vaca Muerta, which now supplies over two thirds of national oil and gas and explains roughly 79 percent of the export increase through higher physical volumes rather than price moves.
- Despite strong production, a CEPa study and industry groups say transport bottlenecks and commercialization rules have left factories in the Litoral, Córdoba and the northwest facing supply cuts of up to 70 percent.
- Policy responses are split: the Unión Industrial Argentina asked regulators to convene an emergency committee and proposed state co‑financing of winter LNG costs but the Economy Ministry rejected that plan while state firm Enarsa has bought a large package of 28 LNG ships.
- Near‑term gains hinge on infrastructure and rule changes — the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline is slated to start in November 2026 to add initial export capacity and analysts warn that completing Tratayén–La Carlota, fixing transport prioritization and settling who pays for winter LNG will determine whether export gains translate into reliable domestic supply.