Overview
- Official data show an October primary surplus of ARS 823,925 million and a financial surplus of ARS 517,672 million, lifting the 10‑month primary balance to roughly 1.4% of GDP and the financial balance to about 0.5%.
- Economy officials say roughly 0.2 percentage points of GDP in additional primary surplus are needed in November–December to reach the self‑imposed 1.6% goal, with year‑end bonuses and prior export‑duty relief adding pressure.
- In real terms revenues fell 2.4% year over year and primary spending declined 1.3%, while export duties dropped 55% after a temporary retentions waiver and comparisons were skewed by the 2024 PAIS tax and asset disclosure inflows.
- Independent economists argue the reported financial surplus is overstated because it excludes capitalized interest; adding those accruals would show an accumulated financial deficit near 2.3% of GDP, according to Nicolás Gadano and other analyses.
- Separate analyses note the IMF’s fiscal target is set in nominal pesos and estimate the government has already exceeded the year‑end threshold, implying it could run up to about ARS 1 trillion in deficit over the last two months and still meet it.