Overview
- The Ministry of Economy reported Thursday that the Sector Público Nacional finished the first half of 2026 with a primary surplus equal to 0.6% of GDP and a financial surplus of 0.1% of GDP, after June posted a primary deficit of ARS 696,843 million and a financial deficit of about ARS 1.024 trillion.
- Officials attributed the June shortfall to the payment of half‑year bonuses (aguinaldos) and a deliberate postponement of Impuesto a las Ganancias filings that shifted collections into July while noting prior spending cuts and tax reductions since 2024.
- Independent analysts at IARAF found that total revenues fell in real terms—about an 8.5% year‑on‑year decline in June—while primary spending rose roughly 3.1% in real terms, weakening the substance of the reported surplus.
- The monthly gap was driven by a spike in transfers and subsidies, with energy subsidies up around 125% and transport subsidies up about 54%, combined with higher net interest payments of roughly ARS 328,049 million that widened the financial deficit.
- The half‑year surplus covers roughly half of the 2026 primary target of 1.4% of GDP agreed with the IMF, leaving fiscal plans fragile for the second half of the year and putting pressure on July tax receipts and any legislative progress on the 'Inocencia Fiscal' reforms.