Overview

• Banks and brokers prepared to open the wholesale rate near ARS 1,460–1,465, a level that would trigger BCRA sales under the band framework tied to the IMF program.
• The Treasury sold an estimated US$500–650 million last week after beginning direct market operations, leaving roughly US$1.1–1.4 billion in firepower by private estimates.
• Official and crypto dollar quotes jumped, with Banco Nación set around ARS 1,380 and crypto trading above ARS 1,430, as the country risk premium moved past 900 basis points.
• Economy minister Luis Caputo said policy settings will not change following the Buenos Aires loss, while analysts caution that using dollars now strains debt service and reserve rebuilding.
• Immediate tests include a peso auction with about ARS 7.2 trillion maturing this week and a Sept. 15 deadline to submit the 2026 Budget that specifies a zero-deficit rule under the IMF agreement.