Overview
- The BCRA’s November REM projects monthly inflation easing to 1.5% by May 2026, extending the disinflation seen through 2025.
- Analysts in the REM expect seasonally adjusted GDP to rise 0.9% in the first quarter of 2026, while FocusEconomics’ panel forecasts 3.1% growth for the full year.
- Surveys cluster around a year‑end 2026 exchange rate of roughly ARS 1,720–1,746 per US$1, signaling further nominal depreciation versus today.
- FocusEconomics reports market rates fell sharply after the legislative elections, with the Badlar sliding from about 49% pre‑vote to near 30% in late November and a panel consensus near 19% by end‑2026.
- Participants highlight that projections depend on the government’s reform push and on the effects of a full float of the peso, which could shift inflation and FX outcomes.