Overview
- Private estimates place October inflation roughly between 2.1% and 2.8%, with LCG near 2.5%, EcoGo and Econviews around 2.4%–2.7%, Analytica at 2.2%, C&T near 2.0% and PxQ at 1.9%, while UTDT’s survey showed a 3.96% one‑month expectation.
- Consultancies say food and beverages drove the rise, led by dairy, eggs, baked goods and meats, though late‑month price readings softened after post‑election market calm.
- Pre‑election dollar swings lifted costs earlier in the month; entering November the official exchange rate hovered near the top of its band as futures pricing reflected doubts about the corridor’s durability.
- Agro‑export currency liquidations fell to US$1,117 million in October, down 84% from September and 56% year on year, reflecting the September pull‑forward from the temporary 0% export‑duty regime.
- Fiscal data point to a real tax collection drop of about 3.5%–3.6% in October tied to zero export duties and the end of the PAIS tax, as the government paid US$822 million to the IMF with net reserves reported as negative and external maturities ahead.