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Argentina Markets Surge on Reported U.S. Support as Country Risk Plunges

Reports of a U.S. backstop are lengthening the policy horizon in traders’ eyes.

Overview

  • J.P. Morgan’s EMBI for Argentina has contracted by roughly 600 basis points from recent peaks near 1,450, with current readings cited around 900–1,018 as bonds rally across the curve.
  • Coverage describes a prospective U.S. package including a swap of about $20 billion, a first tranche after elections to cover a $4 billion January maturity, and potential sovereign bond purchases and credit lines.
  • The peso strengthened with the dollar trading below approximately ARS 1,400, while shorter‑dated sovereigns led gains as prices climbed across maturities.
  • Strategists caution that the rebound rests on expectations rather than repaired fundamentals, with election uncertainty and reserve and liquidity concerns keeping risk elevated.
  • Advisers favor dollarized, lower‑volatility holdings such as corporate bonds, obligations negociables, Bopreales and Cedears, with some research desks highlighting selective opportunities in specific sovereign bonds.