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Argentina Markets Extend Post‑Election Rally as Country Risk Hits Nine‑Month Low

A modest central bank tweak alongside a reported U.S. backstop underpinned the calmer currency market.

Overview

  • Equities and sovereign bonds advanced, with the S&P Merval setting a new nominal record in pesos and JP Morgan’s country‑risk gauge near 647 basis points, its lowest since February.
  • Exchange rates steadied near the top of the band: the wholesale dollar closed around $1,445, Banco Nación’s retail rate near $1,475, and the blue hovered around $1,445–$1,450.
  • The Central Bank’s Communication A 8350, effective November 1, switches reserve‑requirement calculation to a monthly window while keeping a 95% daily floor, a move brokers describe as a mild easing.
  • Liquidity stayed active with more than US$316.4 million traded in spot and about US$1.089 billion in futures, where pricing points to a wholesale dollar near $1,477.5 by end‑November and roughly $1,517 by end‑December.
  • Analysts say the rally reflects improved political clarity but caution that reserve rebuilding and policy sequencing remain critical, as Bitcoin trades near US$110,000 with recent ETF outflows and attention on upcoming U.S. inflation data.