Overview
- INDEC reported December inflation at 2.8% and a 2025 annual rate of 31.5%, the lowest since 2017, marking a seventh straight monthly uptick from the May low.
- President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis Caputo celebrated the result and pointed to fiscal surplus, tight money and Central Bank capitalization as the pillars of their strategy.
- Following the data, the official peso eased, the Banco Central bought about USD 55 million in the FX market, and country risk climbed to its highest level in a month.
- A new exchange‑rate band that updates with official inflation on a two‑month lag projects a late‑February wholesale‑dollar ceiling near ARS 1,607, as INDEC’s CPI methodology update begins with January readings.
- Analysts caution that disinflation has stalled due to exchange‑rate moves and regulated‑price adjustments, 2026’s official 10.1% inflation target is seen as optimistic, and Santa Fe reports 3,936 suspended workers led by the metal sector.