Overview
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its 2025/26 wheat estimate to 25.5 million tonnes, with roughly one-third of area harvested and national yields topping prior projections.
- Field data from Rosario’s GEA show core-area yields averaging about 60 qq/ha with peaks near 110 qq/ha, though many lots show lower protein.
- USDA projects about 825 million tonnes of global wheat output, weighing on prices, while producers report quality-related discounts and alleged exporter ‘cupo’ restrictions.
- Logistics are accelerating: November wheat shipments reached around 1.2 million tonnes and truck arrivals to ports rose about 24% year over year, with some grain still bagged at origin.
- Soy futures are up roughly 8% to around US$420/t after renewed China–US trade, with LCG estimating about US$1.4 billion added to soy value and nearly US$4 billion to total crop value; maize projections near 61 Mt reinforce the outlook.