Overview
- The Treasury completed an auction that rolled over roughly 100% of about 4.5 trillion pesos in maturities, a result reported on Thursday that removed immediate refinancing stress without materially injecting new liquidity.
- The Banco Central has intervened in futures and the secondary bond market and resumed some dollar buys, with a Friday purchase of US$80 million bringing August purchases to about US$329 million.
- INDEC reported July inflation at 2.1% month on month on Thursday, a surprise that raises the gap between price growth and the official exchange rate and lifts the formal band ceiling for September.
- Markets see a clear policy trade-off: injecting pesos would ease high local interest rates but likely revive dollar demand, while continued absorption helps keep the mayorista under the informal $1,500 threshold but increases pressure on public and financial sector financing.
- The government has publicly set a target to add another US$10 billion of reserves before the 2027 election, a goal that shapes intervention choices and leaves the durability of the current exchange-rate calm dependent on the pace of future purchases and investor confidence.