Overview

• INDEC is set to publish September CPI this afternoon, with the release scheduled for 4 p.m. local time.
• Market consensus centers around a 2.1%–2.3% monthly rise, with some private estimates as high as 2.4%–2.5%, and CABA already reported 2.2%.
• Analysts link the acceleration to heightened devaluation expectations after the ruling party’s setback in Buenos Aires province and to seasonal spikes in categories like transport, airfares, clothing, restaurants, and produce.
• The central bank’s REM lifted projections to 29.8% inflation for 2025 and 21.9% for the next 12 months, with sub‑2% monthly prints not expected until January 2026.
• Monthly inflation had slowed to 1.5% in May and stayed below 2% through August, supported by exchange‑rate management and restrained real‑wage increases.