Overview
- The BCRA’s latest Market Expectations Survey projects monthly inflation slipping under 2% at the start of 2026 and reaching about 1.5% by May, with a consensus year‑end 2026 exchange rate near $1,720 per U.S. dollar and bank lending rates around 20.9% nominal annual.
- Private consultoras’ preliminary readings indicate November inflation exceeded 2%, with some estimates as high as 3.5%, driven by higher food prices—especially beef—plus increases in regulated services and one-off discounts tied to Cyber Monday.
- INDEC will publish November’s official CPI on Thursday, and if private estimates are confirmed it would mark a third consecutive month above the 2% threshold following 2.1% in September and 2.3% in October.
- Economists underscore that sustained disinflation will depend on a stable exchange rate, a gradual recovery in money demand, prudent monetary policy, and the timing of regulated-price adjustments, with seasonal pressures likely to keep readings bumpy in December and January.
- In a regional contrast, BBVA Research projects Peru’s inflation to edge up to about 2.5% in 2026 due to a smaller sol appreciation and a rebound in commodity prices such as oil, wheat and maize.