Overview
- Fiscal consolidation has improved headline public accounts, yet broad gains in activity and purchasing power have not materialized ahead of the October 26 vote.
- Equilibra estimates that registered earners saw an initial 19% drop versus early‑2023 levels, a partial rebound to about 94% by February 2025, and then stagnation with slight slippage.
- Consumption, industry and tourism have weakened in recent months with a pronounced hit to small and medium‑sized firms, while energy and agriculture stand out as relative bright spots.
- Strong pre‑election dollar demand and expectations of a post‑election devaluation are keeping the exchange rate under strain despite regulation by the central bank.
- A US$20 billion U.S. currency swap recently eased acute stress, yet the peso hovered near the exchange‑band ceiling around 1,400 and even topped 1,500 intraday in the latest trading.