Overview

• Half the lower house and one third of the Senate will be renewed on Oct. 26, and Milei is seeking roughly a third of seats to better protect presidential vetoes.
• Only about 34% of Argentines expect conditions to improve within a year, down from roughly 57%–60% at the start of Milei’s term, according to Hugo Haime & Associados.
• The economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters and international lenders cut 2025 growth forecasts, even as monthly inflation slowed to 2.1% in September.
• The government faces allegations involving figures close to Milei, including corruption accusations against his sister Karina and reported links between allies and narcotrafficking, alongside an August vote that overturned a veto on disability support.
• Opposition forces are consolidating as the peronist Fuerza Patria won Buenos Aires Province by about 14 points in September and the Provincias Unidas governors’ bloc gains visibility, with reporting of a sought $20 billion U.S. support package tied to electoral strength and U.S. envoys sounding out opposition legislators.