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3w ago

Argentina GDP Slips 0.1% in Q2, Breaking the V‑Shaped Rebound

Private gauges now put recession odds near 98%, highlighting a widening gap with the government’s upbeat 2026 outlook.

La actividad abandonó el rebote en V y cayó
El consumo eprivado cayó 1,1% entre el primer y segundo trimestre de 2025.
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Overview

  • INDEC reported a 0.1% quarter‑on‑quarter contraction in Q2 2025, the first negative print since Q2 2024.
  • Household consumption fell 1.1% q/q, investment declined 0.5%, and exports dropped 2.2%, while public consumption rose 1.1%.
  • UTDT/CIF’s leading index put the probability of entering recession at about 98% in August as activity signals weakened.
  • Year‑on‑year GDP rose 6.3% due to low 2024 base effects, with investment up 32.1% y/y led by imported machinery and transport equipment.
  • The government projects 5.4% growth in 2026, even as BCRA data show weak FDI early in 2025 (USD 611 million inflow versus USD 1,130 million MULC outflow) and REM surveys anticipate a Q3 q/q decline.