Overview

• The BCRA’s REM survey now places September monthly inflation at 2.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the prior poll, with core projected at 2.0%.
• Private gauges point to a band between roughly 1.8% and 2.3%, including OJF at 1.8% (core 1.1%), C&T at 2.0% for GBA, LCG’s point‑to‑point at 2.3%, and Eco Go at 2.3% (core 2.1%).
• Consultoras cite concentrated increases in seasonal and food items—including fruits and vegetables, bread products, and meats—with clothing and transport also advancing.
• Analysts flag currency swings after the dollar touched about 1,515 pesos in September, noting pass‑through remains limited but threatens the recent sub‑2% trend.
• REM participants lifted the 2025 inflation forecast to 29.8% and see the exchange rate near 1,440 pesos per dollar in October and 1,536 in December, with monthly inflation around 2% late this year and below 2% from January 2026.