Overview
- Official INDEC trade data published in mid‑July showed first‑half 2026 exports of US$49,454 million and an accumulated trade surplus of US$13,923 million, confirming a sharp rise in external receipts.
- The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario projects combined liquidations from the agro, mining and energy complexes will reach US$57,168 million in 2026, with the second half now forecast to deliver US$29,793 million versus US$27,375 million in the first half.
- Sector weights in the BCR projection show the agro complex at US$34,897 million, mining above US$9,000 million (lifting its share to over 10%) and energy exports north of US$14,400 million, driven by higher oil volumes and fuel sales.
- Near‑term supply factors include rising output from Vaca Muerta, a projected ~16% jump in oil extraction for 2026 and the planned late‑2026 start of the VMOS pipeline that would add about 190,000 barrels per day of evacuation capacity.
- A more even, higher flow of export dollars would help the central bank build reserves and give the government room to finance large 2027 obligations without immediate recourse to external markets, while also supporting steadier access to imports for firms and households.