Overview
- IARAF estimates non‑indexed spending must fall about 16% in real terms year on year between October and December, covering salaries, energy and transport subsidies, public works and discretionary transfers to provinces.
- Total primary spending would need a roughly 6% real year‑on‑year reduction in the last quarter to align with the 1.6% of GDP primary surplus commitment.
- From January to September, index‑linked primary outlays rose 18.4% in real terms as total revenues declined 1.4% in real terms, compressing the fiscal margin.
- Non‑indexed spending was already down 10.3% in real terms through September, and the accumulated primary surplus stood near 1.3% of GDP, leaving about 0.3 percentage points to secure in Q4.
- Separately, Peru’s preliminary fiscal deficit remained at 2.4% of GDP at end‑September, above its 2025 rule and posing a tighter constraint for 2026 under new finance leadership.