Overview
- Private consultancies and nowcasts report two consecutive quarters of contraction and place third-quarter (Q3) GDP down by roughly 1.2% to 2.66%, signaling a technical recession supported by multiple sector surveys.
- Manufacturing weakness is concentrated in small and medium firms, with Córdoba reporting 36% of firms cut production, the electronics sector saying 42% produced less, and the Observatorio PyME recording an 11.9% year-on-year drop for pymes in Q3.
- Investment has collapsed: official INDEC data show gross fixed capital formation fell 11.1% in Q2, firms report scant near-term investment plans, and capacity utilization remains low (around 58–65% in industry samples).
- Employment and financial strain are rising as 31–35% of industrial firms reduced staff in Q3, many companies extended payment terms to customers by roughly ten days to an average of 49 days, and about 15% of surveyed pymes reported tax embargoes from ARCA.
- Full official Q3 GDP figures are still pending, so analysts warn the downturn could persist and urge watching incoming INDEC data and firm-level credit measures for signs of either stabilization or deeper contraction.