Overview
- Pre-campaign surveys diverge on the scale of the soybean pullback: BCBA projects 17.6 million hectares (−800,000 ha, −4.3%) while BCR estimates 16.4 million hectares (−1.35 million ha, −7%).
- Early maize planting is underway in the central farm belt, with 3.8% of a projected 7.8 million hectares already seeded and exchanges flagging a larger share of early sowing supported by abundant soil moisture.
- BCR sees maize area near 9.5–9.7 million hectares and outlines upside production to about 61 million tonnes under normal rains, helped by reduced pressure from the Dalbulus maidis vector.
- Hydrology remains the key near-term risk as waterlogged zones in Buenos Aires and the Salado basin face normal spring rain forecasts, even as rising temperatures should speed drying, according to INTA.
- Costs and policy weigh on choices: fertilizer prices rose and margins are tight, while soybean faces higher export levies (about 26% versus roughly 12% for maize) despite the soy complex being Argentina’s top dollar earner.