Overview

• Bank data for June show overall private‑sector delinquency at 2.9%, with households at 5.2%, companies at 1.1% and credit‑card arrears near a series peak at 4.9%.
• Despite the deterioration, real peso loan balances to firms and families rose 4.2% in June, and banks reported high coverage of irregular loans with provisioning around 119%.
• Rates spiked after LEFIs were removed in July, lifting financing costs for families and SMEs and prompting banks to turn more selective, with analysts warning of a likely rise in delinquency into July–August.
• Dollar credit expanded quickly: loans to the agricultural sector jumped 133% year on year to June and reached about 60% of farm financing, reflecting FX liberalization, asset regularization and costlier peso credit.
• Regional dynamics diverged as BBVA México reported June real growth of 5.4% in performing loans, the slowest since April 2024, indicating stagnant credit demand in that market.