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Argentina Confronts $6.2 Billion Reserve Shortfall Under Revised IMF Target

IMF approval of the first review unlocked US$2 billion in disbursements to begin replenishing reserves that are set to remain negative through mid-2026.

Overview

  • Market and consultants estimate Argentina needs to raise between US$6.2 billion and US$6.6 billion by December to meet the IMF’s revised reserve goal.
  • Treasury-led initiatives under discussion include block purchases, privatizations, asset sales and concessions alongside potential external debt placements.
  • The IMF staff report calls for more active BCRA participation in liquidity management and clearer guidance on the monetary and exchange-rate regime.
  • Argentina’s gross reserves of roughly US$42 billion amount to just 54% of the adequacy level estimated by GMA Capital at about US$93 billion.
  • Upcoming elections and shifts in country-risk spreads could determine the government’s access to international financing.