Overview

• The Treasury executed roughly $200 million in dollar sales to cap the exchange rate before Buenos Aires provincial elections, bypassing the central bank’s role set out in the IMF program.
• Analysts estimate Argentina is about $4.2 billion below the revised reserve target, or roughly $6.7 billion when near‑term debt maturities are included.
• Net reserves excluding IMF resources stand near negative $7.3 billion, leaving defense of the band dependent on multilateral dollars.
• The wholesale dollar reached 1,453 pesos, within 1.3% of the 1,472‑peso ceiling, highlighting acute pressure on the managed‑float scheme.
• Using IMF funds to defend the band risks running afoul of Article VI and could elevate sovereign stress ahead of a comprehensive review planned for January 2026.