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Argentina Adopts Inflation-Indexed FX Bands as Mexico’s Peso Opens 2026 Below 18 per Dollar

Markets now watch Argentina’s planned reserve purchases alongside Mexico’s coming T‑MEC review as near‑term drivers of FX stability.

Overview

  • On the bands’ debut, Argentina’s official dollar rose $15 to AR$1,495 at Banco Nación, with the wholesale rate at AR$1,475 after a roughly 1.4% move.
  • The new regime updates the floor and ceiling by the most recent CPI; January reflects about 2.5%, putting the ceiling near AR$1,529 now and around AR$1,564 by month‑end.
  • Financial exchange rates advanced, with the MEP near AR$1,505 and CCL around AR$1,541, while the parallel blue held near AR$1,530 and risk country eased to roughly 556–557 basis points.
  • The BCRA paired the bands with a preannounced reserves‑accumulation plan, though reports indicated no dollar purchases on day one, and an estimated US$4.2 billion sovereign payment next week looms as an early test.
  • Mexico’s peso closed the first session at 17.9142 per dollar after a record 2025 appreciation of about 13.7–13.8%, with analysts pointing to the mid‑2026 T‑MEC review and U.S. Fed signals as key to direction and some forecasting scope toward 17 in an orderly scenario.