Overview

• Private gauge ICA-ARG fell 0.5% in July, marking a third straight monthly decline, even as activity stayed about 3% above a year earlier and 0.1% over December 2024.
• The leading index ILA-ARG slid 0.6% and posted a fifth consecutive negative month, signaling weaker near-term momentum.
• Industry contracted 0.7% in July for a fifth monthly drop, retail sales fell 0.8% and turned negative year on year, and construction edged down 0.1% monthly despite a 9.1% annual gain.
• Labor and incomes softened as registered private employment dipped 0.1% and remained roughly 140,000 jobs below its 2023 peak, while the real wage bill fell 2% for a fifth successive month.
• Imports decreased 1.9% from June for a fourth monthly fall since April’s currency policy shift, exports improved for a third month bolstering the trade balance, and JP Morgan cut its H2 growth view to 1.5% implying 4.7% for 2025.