Overview

• Fuerza Patria leads La Libertad Avanza 41.7% to 39.5% after reallocating undecided voters in Aresco’s 6,023-person survey, which reports a ±1.24% margin of error.
• The poll indicates peronism holds its advantage in the populous Primera and Tercera sections that together account for roughly 70% of the provincial electorate.
• La Libertad Avanza posts stronger numbers in smaller sections, topping the Quinta (55.2%–34.3%) and the Octava (44.1%–39.3%) in the Aresco breakdown.
• Most polling aligns on a near tie, with Isasi-Burdman standing out as an outlier by projecting a libertarian win.
• Analysts highlight a separated provincial calendar, record apathy and abstention, internal party tensions, and recent audio and espionage allegations as factors clouding the Sept. 7 outcome.