Overview
- Africa’s refined fuel demand is projected to rise from about 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to as much as 4.5 million bpd by 2050, and ARDA warns many countries still export crude and import fuels at a premium.
- ARDA says the continent needs more than $100 billion for refinery upgrades, capacity expansions and new greenfield plants to meet future consumption with cleaner fuels.
- Fragmented fuel specifications—46 countries yielding 12 gasoline and 11 diesel grades with sulphur limits ranging from 10 ppm to several thousand—are flagged as a key barrier to bankable projects.
- Upgrading existing refineries to cleaner, harmonised standards would require about $16 billion, which ARDA says would open regional trade and improve public health outcomes.
- Logistics shortcomings such as shallow ports, congested berths and limited storage add an estimated $20–$30 per tonne to landing costs, and ARDA cautions that new mega-refineries will not solve distribution bottlenecks.